Canary turns a contested claim into a priced signal, a funded verification assignment, and a record that outlives the takedown. One checkable sentence goes up, the room buys the depth that lets a price exist, two conditional books trade against each other in public — and a named desk works the dossier on a deadline while they do.
One claim. Two futures. One record that outlives the takedown.
The programme buys the location data it is barred from collecting directly.
The wire is where the room turns a vague accusation into a bounded, priced claim — one checkable sentence, carrying the scope paragraph that says what evidence would settle it. Browse the live room, inspect both books, and make a forecast without ever losing sight of the evidence that produced the price.
Every claim carries the same four things in one place: the scope that fixes what would settle it, the depth the room bought to seed its two books, the live activity printing against them, and the dossier a named desk owes by a stated date. Nothing important is left in a comment thread, and nothing is decided by whoever posted last.
A verdict only locks if the books stay 8 points apart across the whole reading window.
Live, closing, and sealed claims
One index, sorted by what is closest to closing rather than by what is loudest.
STANDS and FALLS conditional books
Two separate ledgers. They do not sum to one, and the distance between them is the reading.
Forecast, file a claim, keep the record
Stake points against a book, file an exhibit beside it, and the sealed page outlives the takedown.
The reach limit was applied account-wide, not to the single post cited.
The programme buys the location data it is barred from collecting directly.
The advisory committee's conflict disclosures were filed after the vote, not before it.
These rows come from the labelled example room this site ships with — they are worked examples of a priced claim, not live prints.
A desk is a room, not a tag. Members bring the hard question here, price it against both books, file the exhibit that would settle it, and follow one claim all the way from the filing to the public record — without ever leaving the desk that owns it.
8 live claims, one shared record.
A public workspace for scoped, checkable claims.
the sustained gap, read over the trailing third
one claim, one scope paragraph, one named owner on the dossier
1 book / 1 record
Public officials, use of force, and what the body camera shows.
Takedowns, throttles, and the paper trail behind them.
Casualty figures, contracts, and the case for the next one.
Execution stays deliberately small. The room agrees on one claim, one desk owner, and one deadline before anyone trades, so the market has something narrow enough to be wrong about. What comes back is a signal that can guide a real decision instead of an open-ended argument.
A claim is filed as one checkable sentence — no compound clauses, nothing that can be true and false at the same time. It arrives with a scope paragraph naming the evidence that would settle it, a responsible desk, and a due date. The room locks that scope before the books open, so nobody can win the argument later by quietly moving what was being argued about.
Before a single forecast prints, the room buys depth. That subsidy is what lets the first trader in the door price anything at all, and the room chooses enough of it that a handful of early prints cannot swing the reading. The proposal bond keeps spam out of the queue and returns to the filer when the claim seals.
STANDS and FALLS trade in parallel as two separate books, so their prices never sum to one and the distance between them is what carries the information. A TWAP read over the trailing third of the market's life turns the sustained gap between them into a shared reading rule — one large print at the close moves the spot and decides nothing.
At close the claim is sealed. The signal that was read, the verdict it produced, the dossier finding, and every exhibit filed against it stay attached to the record — and stay attached as context for the next claim the room files on the same desk. Nothing here depends on the original page still being up.
Before a claim opens, the room decides how much depth to put behind it. Depth is the resistance the two books offer to a single print: on a thin book one determined buyer can walk the price wherever they like, and the reading that comes out the far end is a record of who moved last, not of what the room believes. Fund the book properly and a handful of early forecasts cannot swing the result — they have to be argued down by the people who disagree.
The liquidity subsidy is what pays for that depth. It is the room’s money, posted up front, standing on both sides so the very first forecast has something to trade against instead of an empty ledger. Alongside it the proposer posts a bond — small, refundable, and there only to keep unfalsifiable claims and duplicate filings off the wire. The bond comes back when the claim seals with a reading and a dossier attached to it.
A small, fast book for a claim that is nearly checkable already.
Balanced depth for a claim the room genuinely disagrees on.
Deep liquidity for a claim worth a funded, adversarial dossier.
More depth means a steadier signal. A book with a larger b absorbs a large forecast without lurching, so the reading window measures how much the room disagrees rather than who arrived at the close. Traders always pay for their own shares out of their own points; the room funds only the shared market that makes the comparison worth reading. That exposure is bounded and known before a single point is committed — the worst case the subsidy can ever pay back to traders is b·ln 2, and that is exactly where each “up to” figure above comes from.
A fact-check ends at a verdict. Canary keeps four things instead: the claim exactly as it was filed, the gap the two books held across the reading window, what the room actually observed while the question was still open, and what the desk did next.
ExampleThe log produced one continuous file. The desk published it with hashes and the gap claim was withdrawn.
ExampleA flagging channel appears in the report for the same 48 hours. The desk published the line items; the platform-only framing did not survive.
While the room runs in demo mode, a small set of named stringers — wire_scout, desk_stringer, foia_runner, archive_hand, night_editor, copy_check — place a limited number of example prints against the two books, so a new claim is not born at a flat 50/50 with nobody willing to take the first side. Their activity is labelled wherever it appears: on the wire, on the book, and on the record it eventually becomes. Read it as a starting point for the room to argue with — not a hidden vote, and not an outside claim about what is true.
See the claims you joined, the forecasts you printed, and the outcomes attached to your wallet — connect to keep your own record while the room’s record stays public.
Nothing is signed and nothing is spent by looking. The wallet is only how the room knows which prints are yours.
Every print stays attached to its claim record.